Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries

Author: Stafoggia, Massimo, Paola Michelozzi, Alexandra Schneider, Ben Armstrong, Matteo Scortichini, Masna Rai, Souzana Achilleos, et al.

Year: 2023

Published in: Environment International

The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mortality is still inconsistent. The objective of this research is to investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries. We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter ≤ 10 μm (PM10), PM ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) from 620 cities in 36 countries in the period 1995–2020. We restricted the analysis to the six consecutive warmest months in each city. City-specific data were analysed with over-dispersed Poisson regression models, followed by a multilevel random-effects meta-analysis. The joint association between air temperature and air pollutants was modelled with product terms between non-linear functions for air temperature and linear functions for air pollutants.

Suggestive evidence of effect modification between air temperature and air pollutants on mortality during the warm period was found in a global dataset of 620 cities.