Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study

Author: Lina Madaniyazi, Ben Armstrong, Aurelio Tobias, Malcolm N Mistry, Michelle L Bell, Aleš Urban, Jan Kyselý, Niilo Ryti, Ivana Cvijanovic, Chris Fook Sheng Ng, Dominic Roye, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Shilu Tong, Eric Lavigne, Carmen Íñiguez, Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva, Joana Madureira, Jouni J K Jaakkola, Francesco Sera, Yasushi Honda, Antonio Gasparrini & Masahiro Hashizume

Year: 2024

Published in: Lancet Planet Health

Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones. A warming climate can substantially change the seasonality of mortality in the future. Our projections suggest that health-care systems should consider preparing for a potentially increased demand during warm seasons and sustained high demand during cold seasons, particularly in regions characterised by arid, temperate, and continental climates.