National Heatwave Plan evaluation: substantial attenuation in risk of dying from heat since 2010
Published: June 2, 2025
Netherlands
This article was originally posted by the Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment
The risk of dying on hot days has substantially attenuated since 2010 in the Netherlands. The estimated number of heat-related deaths decreased from 7,000 in the 2000–2009 period to 4,300 in the 2010–2019 period. This is the outcome of a study conducted by RIVM. Since 2010, the National Heatwave Plan has helped people become more aware of the risks associated with heat. According to the researchers, this is a possible explanation for the decrease. The risk of dying on hot days, however, remains higher than average. Therefore, it is still important to remain alert.
Launched in 2007, the Dutch National Heatwave Plan was first activated in 2010. RIVM has studied the extent to which the National Heatwave Plan has had an effect on the relationship between high temperatures and mortality in the Netherlands. To that end, RIVM compared the decade since the first activation of the National Heatwave Plan (2010-2019) with the decade before that (2000-2009). This study forms part of the evaluation of the National Heatwave Plan.
Decrease in number of heat-related deaths
The risk of dying on hot days mainly decreased among the elderly, women and people living in low-income areas. Among people over the age of 90, the risk of dying from heat decreased, but the estimated number of deaths among this group remained the same in both periods. This is due to the larger number of people in that age group, which is a result of population ageing.
Attention to heat remains important
The hottest day ever recorded in the Netherlands was 25 July 2019, with temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius in various parts of the country. The study found that the number of deaths one day later was higher than ever before on a summer day. Europe is warming faster than any other part of the world. The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) expects more extremely hot days in future. Moreover, the number of people aged 90 and over has increased due to population ageing. This is why measures to reduce heat-related health problems remain essential.
The National Heatwave Plan can help raise awareness
According to RIVM, the attenuation in the risk of dying on hot days has several causes, which are difficult to distinguish from each other. For example, the heatwaves in 2003 and 2006 may have made people more aware of the consequences of heat. Besides, an activation of the National Heatwave Plan always attracts a lot of attention nationwide, also from the media. RIVM advises health care professionals and informal carers on what they can do for individuals who are particularly vulnerable to heat, such as the elderly and young children.
National Heatwave Plan evaluation – four studies
RIVM is evaluating the National Heatwave Plan on behalf of the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport. The evaluation consists of four studies. In addition to this study into the effect of the National Heatwave Plan on mortality, RIVM also examined whether the Netherlands is sufficiently prepared for a period of extreme heat (code red). This qualitative analysis showed that while the Netherlands is on the right track, some issues remain. For example, it is difficult to determine exactly when extreme heat is disruptive to society (code red).
RIVM also tested the new core message of the National Heatwave Plan: ‘Look out for each other when it is hot’. Approximately half of the Dutch population said that this message motivated them to pay extra attention to vulnerable people around them during periods of hot weather. Whether people will actually adapt their behaviour will be studied in the last part of this evaluation. The result of this behavioural study will become available in late 2025.