Workplace may not only increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and injuries but also compromise work efficiency, particularly in a warming climate. This study aimed to utilize machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) algorithms to quantify the impact of temperature discomfort on productivity loss among petrochemical workers and to identify key influencing factors. A cross-sectional face-to-face questionnaire survey was conducted among petrochemical workers between May and September 2023 in Fujian Province, China. Initial feature selection was performed using Lasso regression. The dataset was divided into training (70%), validation (20%), and testing (10%) sets. Six predictive models were evaluated: support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and logistic regression (LR). The most effective model was further analyzed with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP).

Among the 2393 workers surveyed, 58.4% (1,747) reported productivity loss when working in high temperatures. Lasso regression identified twenty-seven predictive factors such as educational level and smoking. All six models displayed strong prediction accuracy (SVM = 0.775, RF = 0.760, XGBoost = 0.727, GNB = 0.863, MLP = 0.738, LR = 0.680). GNB model showed the best performance, with a cutoff of 0.869, accuracy of 0.863, precision of 0.897, sensitivity of 0.918, specificity of 0.715, and an F1-score of 0.642, indicating its efficacy as a predictive tool. SHAP analysis showed that occupational health training (SHAP value: -3.56), protective measures (-2.61), and less physically demanding jobs (-1.75) were negatively associated with heat-attributed productivity loss, whereas lack of air conditioning (1.92), noise (2.64), vibration (1.15), and dust (0.95) increased the risk of heat-induced productivity loss.

Temperature discomfort significantly undermined labor productivity in the petrochemical sector, and this impact may worsen in a warming climate if adaptation and prevention measures are insufficient. To effectively reduce heat-related productivity loss, there is a need to strengthen occupational health training and implement strict controls for occupational hazards, minimizing the potential combined effects of heat with other exposures.